The 2024 elections in the United States have been described as a crucial clash between two opposing political visions, marked by a significant cultural and ideological divide. Both sides accuse each other of representing either left or right ideological extremes. Originally, the race was a referendum between the sitting President, Joe Biden, and former President Donald J. Trump. However, after the first presidential debate, it became clear that Biden’s best days were behind him. Beyond his age, what was perceived was a lack of mental sharpness that raised doubts about his ability to continue leading the nation.
Biden’s performance in the debate alarmed Democrats, who quickly mobilized, pressuring him to step aside from the race amid growing tension and the threat of a public statement from key figures like Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, among many others. Biden stepped down, giving the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris. This change, whose internal dynamics remain speculative, was orchestrated by former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and former President Barack Obama.
Since her nomination, Harris experienced a rise in the polls, especially in the mainstream media, where she maintained an advantage over Trump during August and September. However, by the end of October, the polls began to reflect a technical tie between the two candidates. On digital platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), unofficial polls have consistently shown massive support for Trump, although these lack scientific validity because they allow participation from people outside the United States, including individuals living in the country who do not have voting rights.
Likewise, multiple informal comments in bars and conversations with Lyft and Uber drivers indicated notable support for Trump, although these impressions are anecdotal and lack statistical value.
The second presidential debate, broadcast by ABC News, was marked by an unethical attack against former President Trump by ABC News moderators, where he was constantly interrupted, while Vice President Harris received favorable treatment without any fact-check.
In terms of funding, various media outlets report that Harris’s campaign has raised at least twice as much as Trump’s. Additionally, Harris has enjoyed the support of influential celebrities, the same ones who supported Hillary Clinton in the past, demonstrating that celebrity endorsements do not guarantee victory in the White House.
However, many of these celebrities are now under public and federal scrutiny for their relationship with Sean D. Combs, who is in prison under a range of charges, from sexual assault, sex trafficking, racketeering conspiracy, and racketeering. Some argue Combs was responsible for the murder of 2Pac, a famous rapper, and his ex-girlfriend and mother of his children, Kim Porter. Ordinary people—voters—are questioning whether these celebrities are giving sincere support to Kamala Harris.
Former President Trump has revealed some names for his cabinet, mentioning prominent figures such as Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Harris, by contrast, has not revealed potential cabinet members, which has created uncertainty in financial markets.
Harris’s campaign focuses on abortion rights, termed "women's rights." Her campaign also highlights the opportunity to have the first female President in the United States, an achievement that Hillary Clinton, despite her vast political experience, could not reach.
This clash between Trump and a female candidate supported by the Democratic Party and traditional media inevitably evokes comparisons with the 2016 election, where, against all odds, Trump won the U.S. presidency over Hillary Clinton, former First Lady, Senator from New York, and Secretary of State.
Although polls show Vice President Harris as the winner or project a technical tie, doubts persist about the strength of her lead. A revealing detail is that in surveys on who would manage the economy better, Trump consistently leads by an average margin of twenty percentage points over Harris.
The current U.S. economy, with higher prices for daily needs, higher interest rates for homes and vehicles, and higher inflation than during the Trump administration, is a central topic that will make undecided voters think twice. Trump also stands out as the only recent President who did not start any wars and promoted peace agreements, such as the Abraham Accords between Muslim countries and the State of Israel.
The famous phrase from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid,” resonates in this race. Harris, without the credentials of Hillary Clinton or even President George H. W. Bush, faces the burden of an economy in decline, one that the American people will inherit from the Biden-Harris administration, which will likely tilt the balance.
In conclusion, my prediction is that the winner of the 2024 election, without a doubt, will be Donald J. Trump, becoming the only former President in U.S. history to be re-elected.
Luis Ángel Montenegro Padilla